Trump administration moves to lower fuel costs ahead of midterm elections face significant constraints, according to fuel market analysts, even as gasoline and diesel prices have more than doubled since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February.

The president announced this week a waiver allowing red dye diesel, which normally carries no federal tax and is used off-road, to be used on highways without federal levies. David Ruisard, pricing manager at commodities intelligence firm Argus, cautioned the measure carries risks. The only difference between red dye diesel and consumer diesel is the dye itself, he said. Trucking companies using dyed fuel face high fines for tax evasion once the temporary relief ends. Additionally, expanding red dye diesel access depletes supplies normally reserved by rail operators and other businesses, Ruisard noted.

Trump has pursued other strategies with more measurable success. The G7 announced this week it would release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from stockpiles following pressure from Trump. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said the announcement itself has pushed prices down, though economist Michael Pearce warned the release offers only temporary relief.

The president also pressed states to cut gasoline taxes. Ohio and Georgia have done so, according to De Haan, reducing national averages moderately. However, suspending federal gasoline tax would require Congressional approval, a step De Haan described as difficult to obtain before midterms.

Trump has previously supported banning diesel exports, but Pearce said this would provide little benefit to the Northeast and West Coast and risks backfiring by forcing stockpiling. When storage runs out, refineries would cut production, raising prices for other energy products including gasoline, he said.

De Haan estimated the president has "basically pulled all of the small levers that a president can pull, and we're still seeing prices very elevated." Solving geopolitical tensions causing high prices, specifically the Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, remains the only meaningful path to reducing fuel costs, he said. Those issues cannot be directly controlled by the White House, Pearce added.

Ruisard noted that even if conflicts resolve, damage to Middle East facilities would continue pressuring prices.